Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.017385 0.019718 0.022256 0.025221 0.028594 0.032312 0.036724
2025-04-27 0.013851 0.017085 0.020912 0.025782 0.031821 0.039080 0.048485
2025-05-04 0.012044 0.015723 0.020333 0.026548 0.034726 0.045153 0.059503
2025-05-11 0.010404 0.014224 0.019238 0.026322 0.036109 0.049205 0.068149
2025-05-18 0.009240 0.013146 0.018484 0.026342 0.037664 0.053468 0.077343
2025-05-25 0.008186 0.012066 0.017562 0.025952 0.038505 0.056699 0.085277
2025-06-01 0.007534 0.011470 0.017234 0.026333 0.040427 0.061580 0.096023
2025-06-08 0.006837 0.010725 0.016591 0.026140 0.041413 0.065082 0.104928
2025-06-15 0.006460 0.010422 0.016575 0.026887 0.043888 0.071055 0.118262
2025-06-22 0.005775 0.009560 0.015593 0.025980 0.043585 0.072519 0.124287
2025-06-29 0.005291 0.008976 0.014998 0.025635 0.044152 0.075411 0.132929
2025-07-06 0.004769 0.008280 0.014152 0.024776 0.043740 0.076576 0.138616
2025-07-13 0.004585 0.008153 0.014268 0.025616 0.046409 0.083381 0.155203
2025-07-20 0.004377 0.007966 0.014266 0.026244 0.048760 0.089843 0.171841
2025-07-27 0.004210 0.007835 0.014346 0.027021 0.051439 0.097122 0.190724
2025-08-03 0.003916 0.007443 0.013913 0.026792 0.052183 0.100817 0.202959
2025-08-10 0.003683 0.007144 0.013627 0.026812 0.053399 0.105505 0.217611
2025-08-17 0.003419 0.006763 0.013152 0.026414 0.053740 0.108483 0.229018
2025-08-24 0.003271 0.006596 0.013075 0.026802 0.055701 0.114876 0.248213
2025-08-31 0.003070 0.006305 0.012729 0.026606 0.056425 0.118773 0.262394
2025-09-07 0.002984 0.006243 0.012838 0.027367 0.059238 0.127296 0.287613
2025-09-14 0.002739 0.005827 0.012184 0.026443 0.058316 0.127705 0.294528
2025-09-21 0.002567 0.005555 0.011809 0.026092 0.058623 0.130816 0.307954